PAGASA Warns of 79 Percent Chance of El Niño by Mid-2026

According to DOST-PAGASA Laoag Station, a dry spell is highly likely to develop between June and August 2026, with a 79 percent chance of persisting until early 2027. Engineer Cynthia Oabel Iglesia, chief weather specialist, announced that climate models indicate a strong probability of the El Niño weather phenomenon emerging mid-year, which threatens to reduce rainfall and raise temperatures across the country.

The weather agency explained that this phenomenon involves shifts in ocean temperatures and wind patterns in the Pacific Ocean, which disrupt normal weather globally. While neutral conditions currently exist, parts of Northern Luzon have already experienced below-normal rainfall during the first half of the year.

Local government units and disaster risk reduction offices are advised to coordinate with local farmers to manage irrigation and protect crops from the impending dry spell.

Despite the dry conditions, PAGASA forecasts that 9 to 17 tropical cyclones could still enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility between May and October 2026. However, Northern Luzon is expected to face significantly drier conditions by October, with warmer-than-normal temperatures predicted nationwide.

Provincial disaster officials have intensified coordination with agricultural and water management sectors to implement proactive mitigation measures. PAGASA urges the public and local governments to monitor official weather bulletins closely to minimize the impact on local communities.

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SOURCE: PIA